How the residential lot yield is calculated
For unzoned and zoned englobo land a retail lot yield is calculated using existing structure plans or the density of recent nearby development.
Yields are estimates and the years of supply greenfield land partly depends on the size of lots being being titled. If recent lots are smaller than in the past, the estimated capacity of englobo land is increased.
The rate at which greenfield land can be developed into houses can also partly depend on the characteristics of englobo lots. Large englobo lots, such as those over 10 hectares, can be easier to assemble and service. Smaller lots can provide opportunities for small to medium sized developments.
Major infill is not included in the greenfield years of supply calculation.
How are years of supply calculated
Years of Greenfield supply remaining is a calculation of the total estimated stock of lots divided by the average number of lots being titled per year.
- The stock of lots is defined in two ways:
- The total number of lots in the Proposed category (certified subdivisions) plus those in the Zoned category. To show more immediate supply.
- The total number of lots in the Proposed category (certified subdivisions) plus those in the Zoned category plus the Unzoned category. To show longer term strategic supply
- Averages of lots titled per year are calculated for a short-term period since January 2021 and a long-term period since January 2015 to highlight the level of uncertainty in any expectations for the future. As the most recent data is only includes titled lots to June ie. 2023 H1 this value is annualized (doubled) to enable yearly averages to be calculated.
- The actual Years of Greenfield supply remaining may be different due to – the stock of lots in the Zoned category changing, the density of titled lots being higher or lower than previously estimated (more yield from existing Zoned land), the rate of lots being titled being higher or lower than previous annual averages, other relevant factors such as fragmented ownership slowing development rates, or any combination of the above.
- It should also be noted that as annual consumption in this equation is based on the rate and timing at which lots are titled, the Years of Greenfield supply remaining range does not reflect the period in which lots may be pre-sold or dwellings may be constructed.
- A lot pre-sale may occur a number of years before a lot is titled and a dwelling constructed.
- It takes varying amounts of time between the issue of a lot title, issue of a building permit, construction and occupancy of a dwelling. Given usual timing in this development pipeline, dwelling construction can be expected to continue for at least two years after the issue of the last lot title.
Zones included within the UDP
The residential zones considered in the UDP are:
- Neighbourhood Residential Zone
- General Residential Zone
- Residential Growth Zone
- Urban Growth Zone
Unzoned includes a range of zones earmarked for future development.
Land defined as major infill
Major infill is identified as land within the established area of a settlement that is greater than 1 ha in area and expected to yield 10 or more residential lots. These are often remnant greenfield land. Land identified as major infill have been identified in consultation with council.
Consultation with Council
As part of the data collection, a process of verification was conducted through consultation with council. This included identifying the constraints to development and providing insights into the potential retail lot yield.
