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Residential greenfield land is former rural land in Melbourne’s growth areas that is being developed for housing, typically detached houses. Melbourne’s 7 growth areas are in the municipalities of Cardinia, Casey, Hume, Melton, Mitchell, Whittlesea, and Wyndham.
The Urban Development Program (UDP) identifies land as it is transformed from paddocks (englobo land) to lots for homes (titled lots).
Summary
As at December 2022 Melbourne’s greenfield land has the capacity to produce around 375,000 residential lots. Based on the recent annual number of lots titled, this number of lots could be consumed within approximately 19 to 23 years.
These lots are at different stages of development:
- a record 54,758 proposed greenfield lots - in the process of being subdivided.
- 180,781 lots from englobo land - zoned for residential use.
- 138,725 lots from unzoned englobo land - requires a Precinct Structure Plan (PSP).
In 2022, 19,512 greenfield lots were titled across the growth areas, more than the 17,198 lots titled in 2021.
The greenfield pipeline
Englobo greenfield land supply
Greenfield land
At the end of 2022 there was enough englobo land, both unzoned and zoned but not yet subdivided, to produce almost 320,000 residential lots across Melbourne’s growth areas. The availability of englobo land acts as a stock of future residential lots.
Unzoned englobo land
Unzoned englobo land is land identified for future urban growth. It requires council or the Victorian Planning Authority to complete a PSP before the land can be subdivided. There is enough unzoned englobo land across metropolitan Melbourne’s growth areas for an estimated 138,725 residential lots.
The more mature Southern growth area of Casey/Cardinia has an estimated 21,800 residential lots or 16% yield from all unzoned land while the northern growth area of Hume/Mitchell, which has been a focus for PSP planning in recent years, has the greatest with 56,895 lots or 41%. Wyndham and Melton combined have a similar amount to the northern growth area with an estimated 60,000 residential lots. Whittlesea has no unzoned englobo land.
Zoned englobo land
Zoned englobo land has had a PSP completed and gazetted into the local planning scheme and is available for residential subdivision. Across Melbourne’s growth areas there is an estimated 180,781 residential lots from zoned englobo land. All growth areas have a similar amount of zoned englobo land. As with unzoned englobo land the northern growth area has the highest number of estimated lots from zoned englobo land with 43,879 lots.
Estimated lots from zoned and unzoned land
Residential lot supply
Residential lots refer to lots subdivided from the zoned englobo greenfield land parcels into land that is available for the construction of dwellings.
There are two stages that the UDP tracks:
- proposed lots, and
- lots with a title.
Proposed lots
Proposed lots are in the process of being subdivided. They are part of a proposed subdivision plan but have not yet been titled. New lots are continuously added to the stock of proposed while others are removed as they are titled.
At the end of December 2022, there were a record 54,758 proposed lots in the growth areas. The northern growth area and Whittlesea have seen an increase of 80% in proposed lots since 2020. This is due in part to the amount of available zoned englobo land and Covid-19 economic stimulus of development incentives leading to a record 33,689 lot sales in 2021 (UDIA State of the land, 2023).
Proposed lots by year and growth area
Lots with a title
A titled lot is serviced by core infrastructure such as roads, water, drainage and electricity so a dwelling can be built. There were 19,512 lots titled in 2022 across metropolitan Melbourne’s growth areas. This is 13% more than the 17,198 lots titled in 2021.
In 2022 all growth areas, except Melton and Whittlesea, experienced an increase in the number of titled lots. Melton, however, still had the largest number with 5,695. On a subregional basis, the largest proportion of titled lots were in the Western LGAs with Melton and Wyndham combined having 50% of titled lots in 2022.
Titled lots by year and growth area
Size of greenfield lots
The last 15 years has seen a gradual but significant change in growth area lot sizes. In 2022 90% of lots titled had an area less than 500 m2. This is significantly more than in 2006-07 when only a third of lots were below 500 m2. In 2022 30% of new were less than 300 m2.
The decrease in residential lot size and subsequent denser urban form in Melbourne’s growth areas informs the UDP’s estimate of the number of residential lots which can be produced from future greenfield land. It indicates that growth areas have more capacity to accommodate residential development than past estimates.
Percentage of lots titled by size and year
Years of residential supply remaining
Clause 11.02-1S of the State Planning Policy Framework requires planning authorities to “Plan to accommodate projected population growth over at least a 15-year period and provide clear direction on locations where growth should occur.” Greenfield land forms part of this future as land is subdivided and homes built to accommodate population growth. Population growth is also accommodated in established suburbs through large-scale redevelopments (monitored by the Urban Development Program – Major Redevelopment) and small-scale infill development.
The table below provides an estimate of the number of years of trend-level lot approvals (titles) which would consume the remaining greenfield land in each corridor. The table provides a range for each corridor and for the total of all growth areas, as estimates are made based on a short-term trend level (2020 to 2022) and a long-term trend level (2007-08 to 2022).
If lots were titled at the long-term trend level (16,347 titles per annum) across all growth areas in each future year, it is estimated that it would take 23 years to exhaust the remaining greenfield land. However, if lots were titled at the short-term trend level (19,817 titles per annum) across all growth areas in each future year, it is estimated that it would take 19 years to exhaust the remaining greenfield land.
Growth area | Total supply (englobo and proposed) | Avg. lots with a title 2007-08 to 2022 | Years of supply (long term av.) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Wyndham | 65,130 | 4,019 | 16 | |
Melton | 87,834 | 2,928 | 30 | |
Hume/Mitchell | 110,902 | 2,481 | 45 | |
Whittlesea | 39,314 | 2,449 | 16 | |
Casey/Cardinia | 71,084 | 4,480 | 16 | |
Total | 374,264 | 16,357 | 23 | |
Growth area | Avg. lots with a title 2020 to 2022 | Years of supply (short term av.) | ||
Wyndham | 4,416 | 15 | ||
Melton | 5,949 | 15 | ||
Hume/Mitchell | 2,976 | 37 | ||
Whittlesea | 2,032 | 19 | ||
Casey/Cardinia | 4,444 | 16 | ||
Total | 19,817 | 19 | ||
This estimate is a guide to future consumption of residential land. Future estimates will change as land is consumed, but also as the expectations for density and/or built form in the growth areas evolve over time.
Page last updated: 17/07/24